Market Analysis

Statement by the Fed, which resulted in its base rate remained unchanged at 0.25%, in general, is considered positive for the market on vysokoriskovannyh assets, including, for the sector carry trade.

Compared to the same document, released in April, TG, Reserve improved its assessment of the current macroeconomic situation in the United States, noting the decline in the rate of economic recession and an overall improvement in conditions in the financial markets. This characteristic seems to be rather restrained reaction to the Fed increases in the price of product segment, which over the past two months for the oil market, for example, has made impressive 36%. According to the FOMC, though the cost of energy and other raw materials has recently increased, a substantial weakening of demand in the economy is likely to reduce the price pressure by providing, thus, low inflation.

The Fed, in contrast to its April meeting, did not mention in the final statement on the conservation of deflationary risks in the economy, which, judging by the quotes trezheriz somewhat disappointed investors in this segment. However, such a market reaction to this information is not sustainable in terms of the coming months. A backup system is fully maintained its previously announced an anticipated purchase of state of the mortgage debt on the open market. In doing so, judging by the results of recent placements UST, financial management in the United States last month, managed to enlist the support of leading the Central Bank and government investment funds that are actively stepping up purchases in the field of investment.

The reaction of the market for this information led to a general improvement of quotations for euro cross rates, but the currency pair EUR /USD for the opening of today's European session, fell to 1.3970 against the value of 1.4070 on Wednesday morning. The main reason for this dynamic seems to be - the market effect of the intervention likely the Swiss National Bank, which, according to some market operators, sold yesterday CHF 1.0880 level against the dollar and 1.5010 - for the euro.

Central Bank of Switzerland in 2009, has repeatedly declared that he intends to prevent a new appreciation of the national currency on the FX in order to counter the risks of deflationand a sharp reduction in the economy.

Growth Central offers Swiss francs in the foreign exchange market, taking into account the interdependence of regional economies, in terms of the medium term, it appears, has a significant negative potential, and to other European currencies. Against this background, the probability of outcome devaluation of the euro against the dollar from current levels in coming quarters will look like is still relatively high. Thus, the positive correlation between the euro and the price on vysokoriskovannyh assets in this time perspective, it seems, will be significantly weakened.

With regard to the prospects for the next exchange the currency pair EUR /USD, then the restoration of its short-term trend is up, it obviously needs to be re-gaining a foothold on the points above 1.4000.

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