Market Analysis

Despite continuing consolidation on Tuesday GBP /USD rate of the euro against the dollar yesterday was not able to resist at the level above 1.33, and today at the opening of Europe session was at level 1.3250, remaining,however, near the key resistance 1, 3280. Perhaps the medium-term risks associated with investments in a single European currency, in this case, affect the dynamics of short quotations. It is noteworthy that, according to yesterday's information Nobel laureate in economics in 2008, Paul Krugman believes that the three countries in the world - Iceland, Ireland and Austria - to a greater extent than the other, threatens to default. Among other states, which are also under threat of financial insolvency, experts said in recent years, Hungary, Latvia, Argentina, Ecuador, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia, Turkey and Ukraine. Dominance in the list of European countries reflects the negative outcome of the expansion of banking in the EU, which took place during the active expansion of the European Union, which, in turn, supported by the conditions created by the global credit boom.

With regard to the U.S. macroeconomic statistics, published on Tuesday, despite its divergence from the preliminary estimates of the market, it is still unlikely for a significant negative surprise for investors. Retail sales in the United States in March 2009 decreased by 1,1% (m /m). Analysts on average predicted growth of this indicator on 0,3%, while, however, the value of the previous month for this indicator has been revised to increase to 0.3% (m /m) compared to -0.1% previously. In general negative trend, thus, in this case was markedly less pronounced than the national average in recent quarters, especially given the decline in the cost of gasoline and the strengthening U.S. currency rate at the beginning of the year. As a result, the annual rate of decline of this index decreased from 10% to 8%.U.S. PPI in March 2008 was -3.5% (g /d) at an average prognosis and significance of the preceding month equal to the indicator, respectively, -2.2% and -1.3%. The decline here was again due to negative changes in energy prices. In addition, though in markedly less affected in this case, and a decrease in food prices. In general deflationary scenario of the situation in the world economy for the coming quarters is becoming increasingly obvious option macroeconomic scenario. But in the longer term risks of a temporary rather significant acceleration of global inflationary pressures now seem to remain high. The extremely “soft” financial policy of the world's leading macro-economic regulatory frameworks, the huge injection of cash into the economy of virtually every country in the world against the backdrop of multi-real stagnation in the global sphere of extraction and processing of natural resources, growing populations and growing problems in the field of ecology seem stable basis for such expectations . Against this background, in the framework of the existing correlations in the world economy, the U.S. currency rate in the medium term is still able to continue to increase in the foreign exchange segment. At the same time, in terms of the short term, the single European currency remains the possibility of certain technical correction to the USD increases under the influence, first of all - the process of recovery in the FX rate poundage.

data of Japanese macroeconomic statistics continue to demonstrate a “weakening” of the continuing stabilization of the developing world now total market investments, a certain improvement of the state of the economy, first of all - China and America. According to today's data, industrial production in the country dropped in February 2009 to 38.4% (g /d) to reduce this figure by 31% (g /d) in the previous month. Changes in volume of sales of housing market condominiums Japan was in March, TG -46.2% Vs -27.2% (g /d) in February 2009 devaluation of yen in the background was still fundamentally sound medium-term process. The character appears in this connection, according to analysts CMS Forex J. Nielson: “We believe that the rate of USD /JPY will continue to rise because the Japanese economy continues to decrease, and Japanese investors are looking for effective investment of their funds overseas”.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 12:30 Moscow time was 33.45 and 38.28 rubles. respectively to 33.38 and 38.31 rubles. morning bidding session. Perhaps the technical factors in the near future would cause a reduction in the cost of Russia's currency to a basket. ” However, in terms of the coming months, the potential, at least - common meaningful stability RUB on FX? now seems high. There is still positive in general, the price statistics of the oil market, the existence of the Russian Federation reserves needed to offset the effects of the credit crisis, as well as developing the recent gradual recovery of financial markets, the performance of the RF the relative value of currencies of Russia in the international market.

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