Market Analysis

United States

Futures on the SP 500 index increased by 0.5%.

Europe

European markets traded near the zero mark. European FTSE Eurotop 100 index of -0.1%, Britain's FTSE 100 -0.01%, German Xetra Dax -0.08%, French Lyxor Cac 40 -0.08%.

The unemployment rate in the euro area in June rose to a maximum of 10 years, the level of 9.4%. Analysts had expected an even more high-level of 9.7% in May, unemployment was at 9.3%. At the same time, consumer prices fell to a minimum of 13 years, according to a preliminary assessment of the CPI in July dropped by 0.6% year on year. Expected to decrease by 0.4%.

French oil group Total reported a sharp decline in profit in II quarter. Compared to last year, profits collapsed by 54% to 2.17 billion euros. Sales of the company fell by 35% against the backdrop of a sharp decline in oil prices and reduction in oil production due to OPEC. Of the remaining major industry representatives have reported BP (profit fell by 53%), Royal Dutch Shell (falling profits of 67%). Total Shares reduced by 2.7%, BG Group -3%, Royal Dutch Shell -1.6%, BP -1%.

Oil

Oil for yesterday's session was able to rally against the backdrop of the world markets fully recover after a significant decline the previous day. Today, futures falling by 0.5%, the spot Brent $ 68.82, WTI $ 66.94.

Russia

The market opened in the neutral zone, then went negative. Reduced to 2%, but the futures on U.S. indexes are increased, allowing the market to return to the neutral zone. At the market weighs the proximity of strong resistance level at 1050 points MICEX, while above this point the market had not been raised. At 16:00 Moscow time the MICEX index increased by 0.25%, RTS index at 1.69%. Trading volume on the MICEX stock market on the level of the last days of 40 billion rubles.

As leaders improve VTB shares 6.2%. VTB will begin to accept applications for the purchase of shares placed under dopemisii from 4 August, after this will be fixed price. Clearly, investors expect the price of accommodation will be higher than the market. Shares of Sberbank increased by 0.8%. Neutral evolution in shares of oil companies. -0.4% Gazprom, Lukoil 0.4%, 0.1% Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz -0.1%. Neglected record of Gazprom for I semester. Net profit for the RAS decreased by 41% to 169 billion rubles. Profit II quarter of 2009 compared to II quarter 2008 has grown by 4%. While bidding to develop the metallurgical sector, which looks stronger SeverStal 4.5%. CMI 1.4%, NLMK 1.4%, MMC Norilsk Nickel 1%.

Outlook

At 16:30 in the United States will be a preliminary estimate of GDP for the II quarter at 17:45 the index of business activity in the manufacturing industry, calculated the Chicago Association of Managers. From the corporate reporting can be Chevron.

I think that the U.S. GDP data could determine the medium-term prospects for the market. For us now in first place in oil prices, so any movement on the commodity market, we otygryvaem fully. If after GDP players feel that the economy does the ability to recover quickly, the oil will continue to rise, but for her, and our market will be able to update the annual maximums. If the data does not meet expectations, then a correction could be sharp and deep. I believe that the probability of decline is slightly higher as world markets are in the 9-10 months maximum, there is a desire to record profits in all markets. Therefore, I recommend that the speculators still remain in the money. Medium-term investors and long-term investors to recommend to retain position.

Analysis - Results of the day
The market of Russia will continue its upward movement, at least in the short term
The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 2.56 point, the index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 rose 3.16 point
Of the notable events of this week is worth noting the agreement Alfa Bank to restructure the debt of the GAS
Leaders today are paper VTB, the growth associated with the collection of applications from shareholders to use the priority to buy additional issue of shares
Dow Jones hits a maximum of the maximum and are drawn to the euro
Support 1.4000 nevertheless been able to stop the fall of the euro
Goskomstat: Average charges for zhilkomuslugi in Ukraine in June increased by 31.8%
Opinion: The devaluation of hryvnia prior to the allocation of the IMF tranche - a sign of close games in exchange for the NBU command

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