Market Analysis

Oil Optimists no obstacle

Russia

index of Russian stock market once again showed multidirectional closing on the basis of trading session: RTS index fell by 0,92%, MICEX index rose by 4.21%. The volume of trades on the RTS stock exchange was $ 2.4 billion, of which $ 1.4 billion was accounted for by the term market instruments, the MICEX Stock Exchange Section natorgovala at 177.7 billion rubles. Looking for the index, the turnover amounted to 59.5 billion rubles.

The main movement in the MICEX index fell again in the last hour of trades (today at the last two hours), just before leaving on vacation RTS index is simply not able to include the whole drama of events. The market remains very much optimistic that persistently turned a blind eye to fundamental factors and continue to swing distributed Fed money. So yesterday, even the dynamics of commodity markets did not detract from the behavior of Russian securities. It is worth noting that the irrational optimism of the property has always ended abyss fall.

star of the day were paper Rusgidro, which grow due to the news of the launch of ADR and the listing of securities companies in LSE. Listing on the LSE means more attention from foreign investors, foreign investors that the inflow of new money inflows of new money means an increase, respectively, under this potential increase in the players and make the purchase of shares - in the case of Rusgidro works about the market logic.

Europe

Old World Index grew by an average of 1.75%, due to the growth index of business activity around the world and positive corporate news. The mood of investors change with frequency of once every one to two days, suggesting the bezydeynosti happening, no prospects, and the formation of lateral vysokovolatilnogo trend.

America

indexes the New World increased by 0,4-0,7%, thanks to a moderately-neutral economic statistics and the optimism of analysts. However, there is no unity of opinion in the minds of investors and speculators are not there, that actually reflects a slight change in the stock indexes.

raw materials, currency, etc.

Industrial metals at auction in London a few fast ice, if you look at the stock exchange composite index LME. But gold rose to $ 940, where the local level of resistance in this metal. If gold grew, it was logical to drop the index value of the U.S. dollar, and that you will not believe it, really like this: yesterday, the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.

Oil again failed under the $ 70 mark: to mark Brent futures traded slightly above $ 68.75, WTI futures for the brand is worth about $ 69.25 - the regular decrease in stocks does not affect the dynamics (though in general, stocks are extremely great and slight variations do not change the situation, and the stocks of gasoline has been steadily increasing, and as such the trend for a fall yet). Our market dynamics of commodity futures stubbornly ignored, but, I repeat, this is a temporary phenomenon, which is also compounded by a close to the critical condition of the real sector of the domestic economy.

Statistics and Reporting

At 13-00 (Moscow time) published data on unemployment in the euro area, in the 15-45 (Moscow time), the ECB announced its decision on interest rates in the 16-30 (Moscow time), Jean-Claude Trichet will comment on the decision of his department, as in 16-30 (ICN) published a series of data on unemployment in the United States.

AutoVAZ shall submit a report on its activities in 2009 (IFRS), 36.6 Pharmacies should provide a report for the first quarter of 2009 (given the increased interest of investors in the shares of the company and Spicy her debt securities, the report may be of interest as a catalyst for speculative movements).

Outlook

I look forward to the start of the trading on the Russian stock market with a break down in the 1% likely bulls from the high monetary liquidity will try to close it quickly, but the external background has pleasure in Bear. Provided that the oil does not overcome the $ 70 mark, the evening can have a traditional event: strait down on the MICEX in the last hour of trading session. Index MICEX definitely chosen the level of 1000 points and so far away from this point does not intend: hot skirmish, and high volatility will continue, the same has contributed to the external background.

Further movement of the Russian market will depend on external signals, which are not conducive to shopping
Stocks RusGidro today may be under pressure
The players are building up positions in futures on shares of Gazprom and Lukoil
Shareholders of Power machines have decided not to pay dividends for 2008
Bank of Russia has withdrawn the license for banking operations with Bank of Euro Trade
MICEX held quarterly revision of bases of calculating capitalization indexes MICEX and the MICEX Index 10
Trades in the United States on Wednesday shut down the growth of stock indices
The technical analysis of currency pairs
The course has increased the dollar - the morning review of cash markets

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