Market Analysis

 
started yesterday on Russia"s market corrective bounce upward today was continued. Speech by Barack Obama and all the more optimistic assessment of the current state of the U.S. economy, data from the U.S. Federal Reserve comments on the results of the meeting, contributed to strengthening the position of "bulls" on the stock markets. The MICEX index rose more than 2%, having played for the last two trading sessions for 50% of the total weekly fall. Again, very confidently traded shares of banks, which are better than other blue chips suffered a recent fall. VTB grows by 3.5%, Sberbank - about 2%. However, the rise today are the leaders still traditionally the most rapid of paper from the metallurgical sector. Leader January - shares of Severstal - today jumped by 7%. In the second echelon similar dynamics demonstrates PIK Group, as well as a number of energy markets. It is worth noting that the purchase of shares in WGC, TGC and IDC had been going on the first day. With illiquid securities regional companies good growth of quotations demonstrate, and liquid stocks FSK (2.7%) and RusHydro (3.8%), which only confirms that there is some demand for thesecurities of companies in the sector.

Despite the impressive dynamics of Russia"s stock market in the first half of today"s trading, we recommend not to get involved in the game especially on the rise, but gradually formed close to the "rebound" speculative positions. If you look at the dynamics of Asian stock indices, it does not, in fact, cause for optimism. Shanghai Composite finished the day rising by only 0.25%, and the Indian Sensex 30 and even less (0.1%). Thus, Russia"s neighbors on the BRIC group, with little enthusiastic at the American news. Apparently, and we will close the day at lower levels than now. The sharp downward movement in germanskomu DAX, closing across the morning gap indicates that the position of "bulls" are now very vulnerable. In particular, DAX has fallen off in the last hour, despite the best published data on the prediction sentiment index in the euro area economy in January.

By the end of trading, we still have to digest company reports Ford Motor, Motorola and Procter Gamble (15.00 Moscow time), AT T (16.00), 3M (17.00) and Lockheed Martin. As well as statistics on orders for durable goods in the U.S. in December (16.30 Moscow time), which, according to the consensus forecast, excluding orders for vehicles to grow by 0.5%.

We continue to adhere to a cautious view of the near-term prospects of our market shares, as well as Western stock indicators. Apparently, only the Friday data on growth of GDP per 4 square. 2009 g would be crucial for further action by investors. In the meantime, we have that stock indicators retained for their important support levels, and therefore reason to hope for positive developments remain.

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