Market Analysis

Financial markets under the weight of negative sentiment of the authorities and bad statistics

Today"s top trading on Russia"s stock market, with extremely negative external environment, in a crash on major world stock exchanges, was a fairly moderate pessimism about 1% below yesterday"s close. In the future, with the opening of European stock pads most of the Russian chips altered the direction of motion. In the short time the market even came out in the positive region. However, after the midday futures rise on U.S. indices and growth of European sites stopped, diminish the optimism that Russia"s market participants. At 14:25 Moscow time, Russia"s main indicators of the market, the MICEX and RTS indices, are traded in a small negative zone. RTS Index on the background of some respite in the pressure on the ruble of the U.S. dollar is slightly better than the MICEX index losing 0.58% (1452 n). MICEX ruble index when this is reduced slightly more at 0.69% (1397 on). Bidding for the ocean today, is likely to begin within a very modest rebound yesterday"s avalanche reduction. Dynamics of contracts for difference on an index Dow Jones, which is an indicator of investor sentiment at the opening, shows a moderately positive trend, predicting an increase of 13 sts, or 0,12%. Yesterday"s trading as the ocean, I remind you, completed another collapse in the leading indexes: Dow Jones lost 1.13% and closed at level 10120.46 forth a broad market indicator S P500 fell slightly more, at 1.18%, and its value at the close amounted to 1,084.53 p.

Quotations black gold, continue to adjust the third consecutive week of record for the period 2009-2010, elevations above 80 dollars per barrel, as shown in early January. The process of reducing the quotations of oil could not resist even positive data on oil reserves in the United States in the outgoing week.

current values of oil futures with the nearest expiration, the Brent-WTI y and are, accordingly, has 72,37 dollars /barrel and 73.85 dollars /barrel, or about 0.25 dollars lower than yesterday"s close Russia"s market.

As quotations Russian "blue chips", that is at 14:30 Moscow time, Russia"s main most liquid stocks show a moderately negative or close to zero positive momentum. The least popular today enjoy the following "blue chips": the shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel "lost 2,01% (4627 USD), Rosneft 1,47% (234 rubles), Surgutneftegaz 1,16% (25,63 USD ).

little better than the rest look like "blue chips": shares of Lukoil lost 0.49% (1647 USD), "VTB" 0,13% (0.0742 USD), prefecture "Sberbank 0.25% (71,99 USD).

significantly better than the market look like Gazprom shares shall be added 0.58% (183.39 USD) and Sberbank ", situated in a symbolic plus on 0,13% (87,25 USD).

In January, the prospects in 2010 look like a moderately positive. Although quite adequate assessment of the emerging markets, against a background of extremely low interest rates in Europe and the United States, as well as the gradual recovery of the real sector of the economy, we expect continued growth on the equity market. However, note that the market growth potential is not so high as at the beginning of 2009 within the most likely, in our opinion, forecast, Russia"s stock market could add about 35% during 2010 with a target level at year-end 1850 pm on RTS index. The main risk to Russia"s market during 2010, we consider the possible curtailing of government support measures of the economy in the United States and Western Europe, which can be expressed in the reduction of quantitative measures of support and increase interest rates if inflationary pressures rise in the economy. However, we note that the probability of folding antikrizinyh programs in developed economies is low during the first half of 2010, as global economic growth now looks still very shaky.

However, the recent statements of Barack Obama on the need for tightened regulation of the banking sector, the United States, in conjunction with measures of China"s tightening of provisioning in the banking system, as well as growing worries about the future growth of GDP of developed countries in the second half of 2010, resulted in the development of correctional Mr. infused global financial market in the last 2 weeks. Additional pressure on ryni had yesterday"s negative macroeconomic data from the United States about the situation on the labor market and orders for durable goods. In addition, it is worth noting the fact of today"s re-election of the current head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, the next term. Despite the fact that Bernanke is a staunch supporter of preserving the liberal monetary policy, investors are negatively perceived the news, apparently, following the rule of "buy on expectations, sell on news".

In these conditions, we recommend the elimination of speculative positions in the segment of "blue chip" completely. With respect to shares of companies of the second tier, in this segment, we remain, remain positive outlook on the long-term prospects for equities of small and mid-cap, with a stable business model and a low debt load and recommend long-term hold positions in the shares of such issuers. Among them we note the stocks with the highest, in our opinion, the potential growth on the horizon of 1-2 years: "Mostotrest", "Asha Metallurgical Plant", "WGC-2", "MRSC of the South", "Severstal", "Ammofos" prefecture "Transneft", "Chelyabinsk Zinc Plant, prefecture Rostelecom prefecture Apatit, Belon, prefecture" Tatneft "," Aeroflot ". Possible temporary decrease in stock price of these companies we see as a convenient excuse for the resumption of long-term purchases.

Today the market of Russia will most likely lateral movement in anticipation of release makrostatistiki U.S. GDP for the IV quarter
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