Market Analysis

During the long New Year holidays in Russia on the world financial and commodity markets have been established all the prerequisites for high-opening of domestic market shares. Published during this period of PMI in the manufacturing sector and service providers in China, the UK, the eurozone and the U.S. have shown that the momentum for the restoration of the world economy. On the other hand pretty bad signal was received from the U.S. labor market, where excluding the agricultural sector following the increase in jobs for 4 000 in November and in December was followed by a decrease of 85 000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10%, however, and there was pleasant enough, as this result was achieved through a sharp departure from the labor force who ceased to receive state benefits.

However, such negative data are not broken by positive sentiment on global markets, because while they have weakened and the chances of an early tightening of monetary policy the Fed. This was evidenced also published the minutes to the last meeting of the Committee on Open Market, which does not appear a hint of the imminent rise in interest rates, while the situation in the economy continued to improve. Comments of head FRS Ben Bernanke about the role of low monetary incentives in the event of a bubble in the housing market, as well as his deputy, Donald Kohn, who noted that the economy has not yet matured enough to detract from the policy of low interest rates, strengthened the belief that the era of cheap liquidity is continue.

Another key driver for Russia"s stock market - the dynamics of the market price of black gold is also delighted with the domestic speculators, were not afraid to go for the new year with a significant share of the securities in the portfolio. With the suspension of strengthening the U.S. dollar in favor of higher oil quotes have played a low temperature, well-established in the United States and Europe, as well as raised concerns that as a result of friction between Russia and Belarus could reduce the supply of Russian energy resources.

reference point at the opening will be the behavior of depository receipts on Russia"s actions in London, who during the absence of trading in Russia managed to grow by an average of slightly more than 5%. Thus, even with the opening could be upgraded a maximum of the previous year (1401.34 points on MICEX), which could further stem the flow of orders to sell in order to record first profit this year. However, the desire to close the gap up will be limited and on the background of the lack of apparent reason. Day of important macroeconomic events are not expected, but the situation on foreign markets does not indicate that the positive market conditions will not undergo any significant changes. Ina couple of euro /dollar was hiked resistance in 1.44. Oil prices due to trends in the market of forex, as well as information about the increase to new record levels of oil imports to China jumped to $ 83.5 on the sort of WTI. Stock markets in Asia and U.S. index futures to support information on a significant improvement of data on China"s foreign trade (exports 17.7% y /y, with expectations of 4% y /y). The highest preferences are now able to receive shares of metallurgical sector and in particular shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel, which may be caused by passing now IPO UC Rusal. Also look bad can VTB shares and Surgutneftegaz.

The level of support today for a forward contract on RTS index performance in March and 145 300 points
Important statistics today is not expected, so we can expect that the positive mood of traders will continue throughout the day
On a long rally on the equity market can not count
Today, Russia"s stock index will rise by 3-5%, the leaders will share the oil and steel companies
In the coming days, likely increased demand for Russia"s actions in connection with the increase in their share in the portfolios of mid-term investors
Russia"s market of today is destined to be accumulated at the top thanks optimism in commodity and global stock markets
Attractive to the opening position again look preferred shares "Sberbank"
Russia"s ADR increase in prices since the beginning of the year an average of more than 5%
Investors, who had gone on long vacations, with a portfolio of securities, today will be rewarded with good added value the underlying stock

News and Comments