Market Analysis

Results of previous day

At the beginning of the week for the promotion of domestic stock market to new heights continued.

RTS index rose by 1.4% to 1581.09 points, the index RTS Standard - for 1.64% to 10304.06 points, MICEX - to 1.85% to 1479.53 points. Trading volumes remained at their previous values.

threat to Russia"s transition into the mainstream of stock market consolidation at the level attained, it would be more logical in light of the fact that in the U.S. SP 500 Index was unable to overcome the bar again in 1150 points, while the price of oil after testing the bottom-up abroad in $ 80/barr. on the sort of WTI continued its downtrend on Monday has been withdrawn from the agenda. Despite the formation of the warning signal of the turn of the current trend in terms of Candlestick analysis after a failed attempt to consolidate above 1,456 points on the MICEX, the orders of "bulls" has proved difficult to break. Such disregard for the fundamental factors can write off only on the inertia in conducting operations against the backdrop remains extremely favorable situation with affordable and cheap liquidity.

Recall that last week, investors witnessed a frankness on the part of one of the functionaries of the Federal Reserve that interest rates would be raised if, it will not be earlier than in the second half of the year. Also it was mentioned that the redemption of debt securities, which ends in March, in the case of aggravation ofthe situation in the housing market may be re-started. Thus, from the beginning of the new year in the allocation of new limits on the purchase of shares from Western foundations no particular reason to caution, however. But, nevertheless, in the mixed nature of the quarterly reporting season, which opened the American companies, greed on the American stock market is not yet completely overcame reluctance to expand the remainder spread to the real situation in the economy, thereby trigger technical factors on SP 500 index.

In Russia as the stock market such considerations do not have much weight. In addition to the excess printed dollars from the Fed tourniquet pocket investors and Russia"s monetary unit - the total amount of funds for deposits and correspondent accounts in the Bank of Russia has reached a 1.3 trillion. rub. that in a not yet launched a credit facility in the country, makes access to the practice of Western banks. Besides supporting high-level interest in Russia"s Securities and analytical papers from leading investment banks. So on Monday the bank UBS recommended that its clients not to wait for tangible correction and buy at any slightest rollbacks in mind its relative cheapness among emerging markets.

As if in obedience to such advice, after minor slumps in early trading on the worsening of the external opening of the ground, Russia"s stock market had returned to "climb", which remains true to him until the end of the day. Here, of course, it is worth noting that in European stock markets have been positive trend by improving forecasts of the increase in GDP of France from 0.75% to 1.4% and Germany with 1.2% to 1.5% this year from their governments, but it is certainly no in comparison with the growth, recruited in Russia. Intraday rise in oil prices after claims Qatar"s Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, the preservation of unchanged production quotas of black gold, is not worthy of serious consideration, since the quotes recovered only to levels close Russia"s market on Friday.

However, the latter circumstance has not prevented Russia"s oil and gas stocks (Micex OG 1.45%) be higher than Friday levels. The leader in the sector were Transneft preferred securities (7.98%), which, apparently, someone from the "large" added himself to the case.

Continue "rally" in the papers of the steel segment of the market (Micex MM 3.13%). Fresh wood stove in the unbridled optimism in these actions were planted analysts Morgan Stanley, have substantially increased their targets have been proposed for them. Shares CMI increased in value at 7.02%, Severstal - at 6.62%, MMC Norilsk Nickel - by 2.91%. NLMK"s shares fell 1.0% in view of the fact that his recommendation was downgraded to "sell".

Raising Target "by UBS and the impact on ordinary papers of the Savings Bank, adding to the price of 2.65%. His "prefecture" went up by 1.41%, while VTB shares - at 0.54%. The index of the financial sector in general Micex FNL increased by 0.81%.

found a buyer and the shares of energy (Micex PWR 1.42%) and telecommunications sectors (Micex TLC 1.72%). The latest information about supported accretion share bank KIT Finance in Uralsvyazinform to 9%, which is an indication that the state tries to insure the advent of "pushing" the idea of reform of the holding "Svyazinvest".

look at today"s market

Tuesday fuse to an increase in Russia"s stock market may calm down. Again, as the previous day, the continuation of a succession of increasesin foreign exchange value of Russian stocks is nothing to indicate. In the United States in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King Day trading on the stock exchanges were not conducted. In Asia (Shanghai composite 0.67%, NikKei 225 -0.83%, Hang Seng -0.37%) in the morning, market participants prefer to reduce their risks in anticipation of new publications of corporate reporting in the United States and amid new signs of tightening monetary policy in China. Today, the People"s Bank of China has once again moved above the bar yield on one-year bill, and the Committee on Banking Regulation announced that, henceforth, lending institutions will be required to match the pace of issuing new loans to the demand imposed on the real economy, while not forgetting about their "quality". Nevertheless, the Chinese stock market is one of the few among those who are able to stay in the black. Futures on the U.S. indices (SP 500 0.22%) are in positive territory, roughly the same levels as at the closing of Russia"s stock market on Monday. Currency pairs are boxed in narrow ranges, which, however, is not "prevent" oil prices return to the downward trajectory (WTI $ 77.9/barr.).

If today a tendency to divergence of price dynamics in Russia"s stock market fundamentals due to a favorable liquidity conditions will continue, the best solution in this situation is to look into graphics. On MICEX after short-term correction of 1415 points in the middle of last week formed a new bullish corridor, the upper limit of which shifted to 1485 items, may hold a morning rush of buyers, if it is. Support the same level can make the maximum Friday - 1469 points. It is in this range around again to accommodate an influx of fresh money, can now enter Russia with a Tuesday, waiting in the 13-00 data on an index of economic sentiment from the institute ZEW, as well as statements from First Horizon national Corporation, Citigroup and McMoRan Exploration. Signals for initiating at least technical correction are relatively far away - at 1445 points, which can return the market to 1415 points - so the reason for withdrawal from the papers yet.

Data on stocks of petroleum products in the U.S. this week will come late in the day, is expected to increase reserves for all parameters of the report
This afternoon, the results for the 4 quarter will present Citigroup, and in the evening - IBM
Selective growth continues today in the shares of almost all sectors of the market, will be favorites in action "Sberbank"
Commissioning of blast furnace number 7 will allow NLMK in 2012 to increase the volume of crude steel by 40%
Cargo ports in Russia in 2009 increased by 9,2% to 496.4 million tons
Board of Directors Bashkirenergo headed by presidential chief of staff of Bashkortostan Nicholas Kurapov
Review of the FOREX market for 18.01.10
The COP recognized the establishment of constitutional government "Ukrspetstorga" and the elimination of the Department of State surplus property and land
Opinion: For the Ukrainian banks remains the main issues of concern debt

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