Market Analysis

Why

Kiev and Moscow would have to play together on the European gas market. In the near future, Ukraine and Russia can be sure that the Europeans will not denutsya without gas pipe.

European Council at the next meeting is going to consider financial assistance to Ukraine for its Russian energy. Special hopes that money will not. And Ukraine is not to such a request. But the idea of helping her with money voiced Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, known for his close personal relations with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Berlusconi's statement could be construed as a reaction to the constant warnings of Russian representatives (among them were, and Putin himself, and the president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev and the heads of Gazprom) - If Ukraine does not give money, Europe can wait for a new cold winter.

At the last meeting with the EU in Khabarovsk Dmitry Medvedev in the most severe form refused to guarantee an uninterrupted supply of gas from Russia to Europe.

How would it? - Asked the head of the Russian state at the press conference, and again reminding the Europeans that their troubles guilty Ukraine. At the same time, Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin in the most elegant expressions explained arrived in Astana Yulia Tymoshenko that Ukraine does not have much choice but to accept the terms of Russian gas supplies.

Moreover, according to Putin, no special opportunity for a repetition of last year's scenario for Ukraine is no longer the case, because of its underground storage facilities will not be enough gas for its reversal in the eastern regions of the country. And the West was sufficiently frightened occurred last winter and will be more pressure on Ukraine to avoid reversal.

It seems that there is no choice but to surrender to the mercy of Russia, Ukraine and even in Europe there. But it is only at first glance. Russia's leaders behave so harshly, because nervous.

Gas consumption in the world is declining with each passing day, and the value it once and will continue to grow, it is insignificant. Indeed, the current increase in oil prices is not so seriously, to believe that Russia will be able to gain tied to the cost of oil gas the old money. Therefore, Russia is interested in selling a large volume of gas, not gas at all. And the Russian-Ukrainian agreement, which confirms the amount of raw materials purchased by Ukraine (besides that today Ukraine does not need to be fixed quantity), - a sign that Moscow now have to literally impose consumer goods.

In practice, this means that the possibility of spread clients - neither rich nor poor - in Russia, and Gazprom's not. To assert that there is no alternative to Russian gas there, too, it would not be prudent. Pipe - yes, there are no, although you may see tomorrow. But there is a liquefied gas. While it was expensive, and Russia supplied gas properly, special attention to it had not been traded, and this type of fuel in other parts of the world. But Poland has recently signed a long-term agreement with Qatar for supply of liquefied gas. Europe's largest terminal for receiving LNG was established in Wales, a ceremony attended by the Queen of Great Britain and the Emir of Qatar.

Construction of a similar terminal proceeded Croatia. Perhaps, even in the current environment, liquefied gas will be slightly more expensive than the pipe, but he always will be. And in the winter of European countries would not need to depend on whether Russia and Ukraine agree.

That, incidentally, an important challenge for the Kiev and Moscow. Russia is interested in that, to save our buyers of gas, and Ukraine - their own transit route. If European countries would find new ways to supply energy and new vendors, Russia will be of interest to them which is less than the seller, and Ukraine - as a transit. Therefore, the two countries is extremely profitable to play against each other.

But Russia, it seems, still think in terms of the last century, when control of the former Soviet republics and their transmission system was considered to be the primary objective of its foreign policy. And when the Russian media about the negotiations told Putin and Tymoshenko, and again they ask: whether the Russian control over Ukraine's GTS or not? But what if in the end will be, but the volume of gas that will be on the transmission system to transport, no longer provide the Russian Gazprom to prosperity?

But in this direction do not want to think - not in Moscow or Kiev. In Ukraine, convinced that the monopoly position as a transit country for Russian gas and will make the Europeans and Russians to listen to her opinion. And Russians are sure that without Russian gas, Europeans do not live. But the search for alternative supply opportunities will continue. And if in the near future Moscow and Kiev could be confident that the Europeans will not denutsya without gas pipe, the strategic policy of intimidation unpromising partner.

When the Russian president asks: How would it? on the logical question of security of supply, it should be understood that thereby increases the state of the ruling family of Qatar, and possibly the Iranian Ayatollah, who is also starting to think about the export of liquefied gas. And if you have recently appeared that Iran is unlikely to compete in this market with Qatar, it is becoming possible the emergence of more and more players who can meet the needs of Europeans in the calm and warm.

Vitaly Portnikov

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