Market Analysis

Futures on the JSC VTB (VBU9): futures on OJSC VTB in the early hours of the trading was in a positive basis of 55 - 60 points, but then at 13-30 Moscow time contango decreased by 15 - 20 points. Futures on the new 1.6% (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. VTB. Bazis within days.

The number of open positions as compared to the morning opening increased by 5 000, and at 13-30 Moscow time the value of this indicator was 64 000 (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. VTB. Open positions within days.

In the medium term, the market remains in the descending trend. Volatility September putov outside money - higher than the September call out of money. Thus, at the current market, we again see a volatility smirk with distortions in the putov (Fig. 3), which indicates that the downward movement should be resumed.

Fig 3. VTB. Exchange IV within days.

If you talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number of remains VB3500AU9 (put max, Fig. 4) and VB4000AI9 (call max, Fig. 4) страйках, the absolute values for these страйках do not focus on these levels as at full form.

Figure 4. Levels optional support /resistance.

The most likely scenario: the level of Perforation 3 500, followed by a view 2 250.

Least likely scenario: the resumption of growth to a level of 4 000.

Opinion: The price of petrol A-95 can grow by the end of summer more than UAH 1 per liter in the absence of agreements with the oil
Analysis - Results of the day
Despite the slight decline in Russian stocks, large and panic selling is not
Data on the U.S. labor market can affect the mood of the players
At 16.00 Moscow time the volume of trades in the market for government securities MICEX was 18.84 billion rubles
It looks like the market sector of the steel industry: NLMK shares increased by 6.3%, Severstal at 2.7%
In the IDC Holding could enter one of the affiliated distribution companies
Since early 2009, Russian Railways has reduced the level of accidents on the railways by 18%
Futures on the SP 500 index falling to 0.6%

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