Market Analysis

On Wednesday, rate EUR /USD tested the resistance of 1.4180 /00, but with the opening of today's European session, the quotations of the currency pair returned to the point of their average values over the last week. By 9:00 Moscow time on Thursday the course of the currency pair at 1.4120.

pre-recession market liquidity in anticipation of the Independence Day in the United States traditionally has increased short-term volatility in exchange rates. In these circumstances, the information that China has taken the initiative to discuss the new world reserve currency during the forthcoming summit of G8, has had quite a noticeable downward pressure on foreign exchange quotes the American currency.

It is unlikely that China, with its considerable dollar reserves to pushing the processes associated with the weakening of USD in global finance. However, the gradual increase in the elasticity of the global monetary and payment system, China is one of the world's biggest exporters, obviously interested. It is important to note that the June meeting of Group of Eight was held under the sign of the financial support of the American segment. However, the reduction of tensions in international markets, subsequent thereto, allows the world's financial leaders to once again move its attention to the problems of medium-to long-term projects. With respect to macroeconomic data released on Wednesday, they are generally conducive to the growth of quotation EUR /USD, although is unlikely to influence the dynamics of FX can be significant.

June business climate indicator in industry in the EMC calculated Markit Economics, according to yesterday's data, rose to 42.6 points. The average prediction and the value of this indicator in the last month amounted to, respectively, 42.4 and 40.7 pt.

Retail sales in Germany in May, TG increased by 0,4% (m /m) compared to 0.5% (m /m) in the previous month and -0.1% (m /m), on average, expected in the case of specialists.

On the other hand, the rate of business optimism in the manufacturing sector of America, according to the ISM, in June of TG, though, and continued to increase, amounting to 44.8 pt. to 42.8 points in May 2009, yet was below the average market forecast, equal to 46.4 pt.

showed similar trends and an indicator of planned sales in the American housing market. Its value in May, TG increased by 0,1% (m /m), which was less than expected in the average value of specialists 0,7% (m /m). However, formed in April, TG growing trend in this indicator, apparently survived. This increase in this indicator during the previous month was revised from an increase to 7.1% (m /m) compared to 6.7% (m /m) previously.

Exchange EUR /USD remains a short-term growth potential. However, the risks change bull trend of the currency pair on the opposite, in terms of prospects for the coming weeks, appears to be relatively high.

Financial flows from Japan, other Asian countries - which now seems to begin to set the tone in the market - can, in large part, to pass the EU countries. Europe less than ready for the crisis than, for example, the United States and China. Effect in this case, the limited opportunities in the European monetary and fiscal macroeconomic stimulation, as well as behind the regional banking system in matters related to the clearing the balance of credit institutions.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 10:00 Moscow time was 31.13 and 36.87 rubles. against, respectively, 31.19 and 36.87 rubles. morning bidding. The recent gradual appreciation of the ruble to bivalyutnoy basket Bank of Russia and the USD in the coming months, possibly as a result of continued, even in the face of improvement in the financial markets of Russia over the period mid-June, TG Operators of FX in this perspective, it seems, will closely monitor forecasts of the Russian budget statistics and the dynamics of these debt indicators of corporate sector of the economy of Russia.

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