Market Analysis

Since the beginning of the dollar in exchange offices has risen in price a bit. This happened for several objective reasons, among them - the calculations of foreign debts. But NBU all responsibility folded certain speculators.

Last Friday, the National Bank issued a policy brief in which he called the main reason for the devaluation of the light. Recall from the beginning of the new year by 14 January the dollar has risen in price in the currency exchange with 7,95 /8,05 UAH. to 8,07 /8,19 UAH. On Friday, its rate dropped slightly - to 8,06 /8,16 UAH. But it is still a high level. For comparison, all of December cash price of the dollar does not exceed 7,99 /8,07 UAH.

"In the first working day in 2010 exceeding the foreign exchange proceeds from export operations on payments for import contracts. However, the intensification of calculations Ukrainian residents on their foreign debt obligations had a more important influence on exchange rate dynamics, the hryvnia, which has led to an increase in market quotations of the dollar United States, "- explained in his note to the NBU.

In addition, the regulator said that in early January, he singled out, "Naftogaz Ukraine" the necessary amount of currency for the calculation of the gas. This event caused a political scandal because the NBU actually took the currency from reserves, instead of letting a pack of government bonds. Nevertheless, according to a note on the rate of operation is not affected. This statement of the regulator was a revelation. All week before the NBU blamed the rise of the dollar of some speculators, and even waged war with them.

Last Tuesday, the regulator has sent a telegram signed by the Acting head NBU Anatoly Shapovalov, in which he urged the banks not to go beyond the indicative rate of hryvnia to the dollar, which every day, says the regulator. Recall a couple of months ago, the NBU has threatened that he would severely punish banks that buy non-cash currency at a rate above the average.

Another telegram signed by Mr. Shapovalov sold on Thursday. It was published under the imprint of "restricted" and meant the leaders of individual banks. They offered to take personal control of the establishment of exchange rates.

"In case of further destabilization of the bank, which you lead, the weighted average quotation of the hryvnia interbank market the National Bank will treat it as your personal policy that leads to destruction of the macroeconomic preconditions for stability and prevents the output of the economy from the crisis" - the text says signed by Anatoly Shapovalov.

Channel "i" in NBU explained the message so that the regulator has analyzed the market and found some banks, which inflated rates. "Many of them worked more than a month"s loan portfolio growth - zero income - zero. What do they do?" - The official said. Nevertheless, market participants reacted with irony to another "witch hunt".

According to them, if there were speculations, then at the level of "wholesalers" - large illegal currency traders. However, these actions do not have such a strong influence on the market to threaten revocation of licenses of banks. Financiers named three main reasons that on the eve of elections, the dollar has risen in price. This lack of currency sales, growth in demand for the currency and the actions of the National Bank.

Compared to December, virtually disappeared from the market sellers of currency. Late last year the U.S. was willing to sell much more than their customers. To prevent the collapse of the course, even the NBU redeemed excess currency from the market.

According to bankers, money supply was due to three factors. Banks sold the currency to replenish capital, speculators wanted to buy Government Bonds with an ultra high yield of about 30% per annum. Also in the country came under the U.S. election.

in January, according to statistics the NBU, the volume of sales to non-cash currency market fell by about two to three. If in December the typical volume of trading in the dollar stood at $ 250-500 million, in January the average per day turn out just $ 120 million based interventions NBU.

"Most likely, the eve of elections, all decided to hold the currency. Perhaps after the first round, some exporters will decide to sell, but there are none," - said the deputy chairman of one of the system of banks.

"just disappeared all sellers," - stated the treasurer of a medium-sized banks. This increased demand for dollars. Buy them would not only debtors mentioned in the note by the NBU. "One of the reasons that resulted in increased demand for the currency, was the demand from foreign investors who have received repayment of their investments in public securities Finance Ministry", - said director of the department of treasury operations Brokbiznesbank Igor Davidenko.

In addition, the banking system since the beginning of the year formed an objective overabundance hryvnia. In late December, the banks have on their accounts 19,6 billion UAH. Of these, only amounted to 12.2 billion reserves - conditional minimum balance. By January 13 balances with banks rose to 22.8 billion UAH. Thus, they turned in their arms a lot of money to spend. "Part of that money could easily go for the purchase of currencies", - said deputy head of one of the system of banks.

To remove this "monetary overhang", the NBU 13 and 14 January held a massive withdrawal of money from banks through the sale of certificates of deposit. 13 January regulator "pulled" from the system 2.3 billion for the week of 8% per annum, and 14 January - another 1.3 billion under the different interest for different periods. As a result, on Friday morning, the balances on correspondent accounts Slimmed down to a quite decent 18,7 billion UAH.

Against the backdrop of falling supply and demand has grown with the NBU Tuesday sold dollars from the reserves to keep the course. However, he sought to implement as possible. During the intervention, he sold only 50% of those volumes, which asked the banks. Naturally, this pushed the rates up. In fact, the regulator has played into the hands of banks that sell dollars above the rate of intervention. On the other hand, market participants who sold and bought objectively valuing the dollar, the regulator called speculators and threatened them with sanctions. What ends with such a policy, known long ago. In such a "fork" policy apparently stabilized, however, customers are beginning to pay several times more commission.

the cash market, the dollar became more expensive and not without the interference of the NBU. Even last month, the regulator banned during the day to change exchange rates in exchange offices. Prior to that, one course could be set in the morning, another in the evening.

In practice, the decision to create an artificial shortage of currency in the market. "Now, if we see that the dollar and the euro appreciates, then simply remove the currency from the sale. People come and they say that the sale is not", - explained the situation deputy chairman of one large bank.

At the end of last week, Director of the Department of Foreign Economic Relations National Bank of Ukraine Sergey Kruglik found - a statistic spot market, the population barely reacted to the recent increase in rates. In his opinion, this is a very good signal that the market will soon stabilize.
Bankers also confirm that after the first round of elections, the situation on the cash market will become clearer.

However, Davydenko believes that in the near future likely volatility in the currency market. "It will be linked with the ongoing presidential elections, the lack of state budget and logical economic policy for the current year, as well as the attempts of speculators to destabilize the situation. In the event of a timely response to the deterioration of the NBU in the interbank market, the situation on the foreign exchange market stabilized somewhat," - says he.

Sergei Lyamets

Dollar exchange rate is saved without changes - a review of cash markets
Kommersant: NBU threatens to limit the earnings of foreign exchange traders
Forbes took from turkompanii forbes.ru domain and requires a record compensation
The most attractive situation for investment will begin in mid-May
The level of support for fixed-term contract on RTS index performance in March for today - 154 850 points
Substantive support to the market shares is a factor of excess liquidity and cheap
A positive factor is the influx of money from Western investors in emerging markets, which keeps them from correcting
Season, which began reporting in the United States has not yet been able to give new impetus to market growth
Today is the negative real collapse in oil prices, which leaves no chance for growth in Russia"s stock market

News and Comments