Market Analysis

Results of previous day

On Thursday, the restoration of Russia"s stock market after a prolonged downward continued.

The RTS index grew by 1.1% to 1406.55 points, indexes MICEX and RTS Standard - for 1.05% and 1.1% to 9741.57 and 1406.55 points respectively. Trading volumes declined slightly.

The reason for this was the positive reaction of global markets to summarize the meeting held on the Fed. The federal funds rate was maintained at the same level of 0-0.25% per annum, with the passage, that this situation will continue for a long time, was not subjected to correction. Also, do not become "touched" by the representatives of FOMC discount rate, as expected by some experts. At the same time the Fed reaffirmed their commitment to previously stated plans for the removal of additional measures to stimulate the economy: stop the program redemption of debt securities secured by mortgage and agency securities by March 31, as well as a number of programs to provide liquidity to February 1.
However, slightly more upbeat assessment of what is happening to the economy of investment companies and employment is allowed to believe that Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues have become increasingly convinced that economic recovery is sustainable. The comments were used the phrase "the pace of economic recovery will be moderate for some time" and "business activity continued to grow."

The fact that the decision to leave interest rates at the same level it was not unanimous - advocated for raising the head of the FBI in Kansas, Thomas Hoenig, the mood of a particular way does not affect (SP 500 0.49%). Futures on interest rates reflected a slight increase in the chances of ending super soft monetary policy, which can be expected to occur with a probability of more than 50% only in November.

After the bidding was made by U.S. President Barack Obama with a report on the situation in the country that did not introduce any confusion in the prevailing balance of power. Support bulls have felt after his words that the worst thing in the "storm" is over, and after the disclosure of details of tax incentives for creating new jobs. Thus, Mr. Obama did not touch sensitive markets is the theme - the reform of the financial industry, noting that no interest was to punish the banks. However, he focused on the audience that seeks to follow through on what may be an indication of his willingness to compromise, and that to putting the lives of its plans, no hurry, probably will not.

However, a more optimistic assessment of the economy in the Fed"s comments, enthusiasm among buyers in the morning and woke up in oil prices, despite continued with the strengthening U.S. dollar. On the stock markets in the world and optimism prevailed that allowed Russia to bidders after opening with a good gepom up without unnecessary hesitation to return to purchases in the hope of completing the short-term downward trend. Day support such expectations proved to be favorable data on employment in Germany and the index of economic sentiment in the euro zone.

Only after approaching the levels of strong technical acumen bull began to weaken. On MICEX were passed down as such in the early weeks of short-term upward trend, conducted on a minimum of December, as well as the extremes of the completion of the previous technical rebound up (1420-1423 points). It is here more active "Bears", clearly annoyed that the initiative is slipping from their hands, and they may lose control over the situation in the near future.

Satisfactory reports of U.S. companies, published the day, failed in achieving local overbought stimulate the players on the opening of additional aggressive "Long", but the discrepancy of the expected values of the published statistics will eventually upset the existing balance of power toward sellers. Applications for unemployment benefits totaled 470 thousand, while experts expect a greater reduction of up to 450 thousand orders for durable goods have confirmed the view the Fed that the companieshave begun to capital investment - without reducing aircraft orders indicator rose by 0.9 % with expectations of 0.5%. However, players are paid much attention to the accumulated orders, which rose by only 0.3%, while the consensus forecast was 2%.

spoil the mood of the evening and a sharp decrease in stock indicators developed under the influence of problems in Greece. Credit default swaps Greece reached a new maximum values, and the yield of 10-year bond Greece overcame the bar at 7% per annum. Once again, speculation began that in the circumstances, the Government of France and Germany began to consider the possibility of providing financial support "weak link" in the eurozone. Made at the World Economic Forum in Davos speech, Prime Minister of Greece, Mr. Papandreou, that such a request his Government had not appealed, had no effect on the players. Added fuel to the fire and the rating agency Standard Poor"s, which reported that did not regard the UK banking sector to the cohort of those prevalent in stable and low risk.

By the end of the day to refocus on the problem of the Greek world markets and speculators have forced Russia to change its attitude towards risk, which resulted in testing psychological level of 1400 points on the MICEX index, above which the market by the end of the day could not resist.

Despite the negative dynamics of representatives of metallurgical sector overseas stocks of domestic companies ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy, except for securities Polyus Gold (-1.37%) felt themselves to an increased interest (Micex MM 2.35%).

keep an interest in and to the shares of telecommunications (Micex TLC 1.27%) and energy segment (Micex PWR 1.48%). In the latter among the more or less liquid securities the focus shifted to the IDC Holding shares (2.41%).

pretty good buy attended rallies in the financial market segment (Micex FNL 1.62%): VTB Bank (3.19%), Sberbank vaccinated. (1.22%). Ordinary Paper Savings Bank, in the morning found themselves on the approaches to the resistance to 88.5 rubles, failed to show "pryti" their "partners." Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, head of Sberbank Herman Gref, who proposed a reduction in the proportion of government equity to a blocking stake, which, if implemented, may have added improvement in the investment community to the shares of the bank.

Oil and Gas Sector (Micex OG 1.12%) at the expense of Gazprom shares (0.16%) looked weaker market. The papers Rosneft (1.47%) "reanimated" bull "message on opening the strategic Savostyanova deposit in the Irkutsk region with reserves of 160 million tons

look at today"s market

On Friday, Russia"s stock market is likely to delay the removal of uncertainty about their immediate prospects for next week. After a failed breakout band 1420-1423 item of the MICEX index was confirmed the relevance of short-term downward trend, but it is unlikely bulls will agree with this verdict and will try to continue with renewed strength again to rush to the attack on these lines. Today, however, before they will be a different challenge - not to allow their opponents to break long seen as a technical rebound upward momentum, as it had been earlier in the week.

Since opening with a break down of not less than 0.7% of the MICEX index may fall below 1400 points and under the influence of the deterioration of the external background check on the strength of support in 1386 points. The psychological sales after the opening of the market participants will push the weak closure of trading on Wall Street (SP500 -1.18%), and originated a new wave of risk aversion against the backdrop of increasing anxiety in relation to the servicing of sovereign debt in the euro area and the tightening of monetary policy in India. Futures on the U.S. indices (SP 500 -0.52%) under the influence of these events left in the negative zone, leveling effect of the positive reports from SanDisk, Amazon and Microsoft. At the auctions in Asia and today is dominated by pessimism: Shanghai composite -0.08%, Hang Seng -0.78%, Nikkei 225 -2.08%. Japanese stock market did not have good support for macroeconomic data for household spending, industrial production and unemployment.

The whole focus of market participants shifted to the decision of the Reserve Bank of India to raise the allowance reserve for banks by 75 basis points, while experts predicted a smaller increase, only 50 basis points. Thus, the price reflects the likely slowdown in the third-largest economy in the Asian region. Nervous speculators and the situation with the Greek debt, CDS which reached a new height. Fueled agency Moody"s, which warned that Portugal could lose its Aa2 rating to the case in 2011 did not mend their affairs with public finance. Pair euro-dollar again came under selling pressure (1.3952), but oil prices remain stable until a level of $ 74/barr. on the sort of WTI.

If the support in 1386 of items on MICEX stand, day dynamics of the market can stabilize and may be attempts to play back the morning decline in mind the expectations of strong U.S. GDP data for the IV quarter (16-30). The publication of this figure will increase volatility as anyone would be interpreted as withdrawal of props from the market, and someone that can inspire more aggressive buying. The outcome of these torments can decide the opening auction in the U.S., which will show: what is your view on this subject among American investors. In many respects it and determine: where the market will move in the near future: a complete short-term trend down, or will continue, jeopardizing the medium more optimistic prospects. Also, the mood will set the reporting from Honeywell and Chevron, as well as data on an index of purchasing managers Chicago (17-45) and index of consumer confidence at Michigan State University (17-55). In the 16-15 will perform Deputy officially received reassignment last night Ben Bernanke, Donald Kohn.

The dynamics of today"s trading on the market of Russia will be determined by changes in the "risk appetite" of Western investors
Possibility of the outcome of further depreciation of the ruble of Russia in the foreign exchange market in the medium term remains
Expected today the first official estimates of GDP growth in the U.S. 4 th quarter of 2009 could radically change the mood in the market
While the markets are strong corrective mood, decent excuse for a pd09ossible change in this trend is not
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