Market Analysis

USD

A large number of factors taken into account players with the current trade, creates an atmosphere of uncertainty and volatility. Comments officials, repatriation movements, as well as economic reports continue to break the currency in opposite directions. Ironically, the last time the representatives of the monetary authorities stepped up their statements. Trichet advocates a policy of strong dollar. Fuji initially said that the growth of the yen's okay, and then, recollecting himself, argues that in special cases, foreign exchange interventions are possible. And the Bank of England suddenly started to behave even more contradictory, stating that the reaction to King's recent comments about the weak pound is exaggerated. And the Central Bank deposit rate is also not going to change. In general, autumn uncertainty remains, but glad that everything is so active and lively.

With regard to economic reports, they were contradictory. In July, prices SP /Case-Shiller dropped less significantly, as expected, reflecting a minimum of 17 months of recession. Low-cost loans, as well as government tax credits have provoked the growth of sales of houses, slowing the pace of decline in prices. However, the confidence of U.S. consumers unexpectedly eased in September as rising unemployment, negative impact on the household. Index of consumer confidence, derived Conference Board, reflected the decline to a mark of 53.1 against the revised August rate of reduction of 54,5. Subindex showed deterioration in both current conditions and economic expectations.

Do not forget that the current week - week of release levels of employment payroll. Thus, it is worth all the attention directed to the published report to the leading indicators. Today's calendar is particularly well such indicators. First, pay attention to the report ADP, to check the pace of job cuts in the private sector. Projections indicate slower rates of dismissals, and if expectations are confirmed, it could again cause a surge in desire for risky assets, although again the last day of the month and quarter, the dynamics of the movements will be distorted. In addition to the labor market, we continue to follow and for other industries - PMI Chicago reflect the state of the manufacturing sector of industry. The final release of the GDP for the second quarter completely set the record straight and true, if there is no sharp deviations from the preliminary estimates, the report will be ignored in connection with irrelevant information (much more interesting to learn about the growth rate for the 3 rd quarter).

EUR

During yesterday the euro continued to suffer losses, although today most of them were vosstanovlena.Tem, however, economic reports fully advocated that the single currency is doing better. According to the Federal Office of Statistics, in August, import prices in Germany rebounded stronger than expected due to higher energy costs. A separate report showed that economic sentiment in the euro area continued to improve on the background of the fact that all sectors except retail trade, reflected the growth of economic morality. The index of economic sentiment rose to 82.8, reflecting a 6.1 month increase in a row. Nevertheless, the main figure is still well below the long-term average. The index of business confidence also in the retail sector rose from 47.1 to 48.6 to the maximum level for 16 months. Thus, consumer spending still continues to decline, but a more restrained pace.

Today's calendar will provide data on the labor market in Germany and the preliminary level of inflation for September across the region. According to recent studies of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the topic firing of workers in this industry has accelerated, which may find expression in today's German report. If on top of that, and inflation starts to decline, it could put pressure on the single currency.

GBP

As mentioned above, the Bank of England is trying to confuse the markets, arguing that the King, with his appeals to the weakening national currency is not so understood, and the deposit rate will not change anytime soon. This, as well as economic data helped the pound recovered slightly. Britain's GDP for the second quarter was revised to a slight increase against the background of the fact that activity in the construction sector slowed down much weaker than originally anticipated. In the second quarter UK GDP slowed to 0.6% quarter /quarter and 0.5% y /y. Moreover, the net consumer credit in August, the UK has grown stronger than analysts expected. The reason for this was an increase in the volume of issued mortgage loans. A CBI report showed that retail sales sector is beginning to stabilize due to the fact that in September sales at an annual rate did not reflect significant changes. The balance of sales was much stronger than projected at $ 3 versus -14 in August. In addition, the indicator showed the maximum increase in April.

Today we will continue to monitor the presentations by the Central Bank, since something tells us that the story is not finished yet, and in my heart Representatives Committee is advocating a weak pound. In addition, we will see a report on an index of activity in the services sector, which is unlikely to cause a surge of emotion in the markets.

JPY

Japanese accounts actively buying the yen, coupled with the dollar and the crosses, because today the last day of the fiscal half-year in Japan. Fixation profits at the end of the month and the fiscal half-year continued to put pressure on the dollar /yen. However, growth of the Japanese currency was restrained, because we were not very positive data on the economy.

volume of industrial production in Japan rose by 1.8% in August against the previous month, but fell against the July growth on 2,1% and on 2,3% in June. A separate report showed that the average monthly salary in Japan fell by 3.1% in August to Y273 360, noting the 15 th consecutive decline. However, in July salary decreased even more at 5.6% in June - on 7,0% against decrease in premiums. Thus, we see that the Japanese authorities promised reconstruction and stabilization are seen even on the horizon.

Recommendations on RTS Index futures on Wednesday
Today's publication of statistic data from the U.S. could lead to the exit from existing markets trading range
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Today's trading on Asian exchanges take place in heteropolar areas
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Tense stop

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From continuing upward movement holds no corrective dynamics and achieved high price levels
Recommendations for market shares: LUKoil, Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank

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