Market Analysis

USD

The second working day of the week was fairly quiet. It seems that after the currency turmoil endured decided to take time out and is now safely out of going on and determine the order, where they continue to move. Little support for the dollar, allowing it to strengthen the range yesterday, had a speech before Congress heads of the Fed. Mr Bernanke said (that part was in breach of previously published article in the WSJ), which increased unemployment and strained conditions in the credit sector could have a negative impact on the emerging signs of economic recovery, and it is too early to talk about moving away from the current akkomodatsionnoy policy, which necessarily will be, but at that time. But for this to happen to stabilize the labor market, to begin a steady growth in the economy and the weakening of the downward pressure on inflation. In general, he did not say anything new and unknown, as is likely, and was due to prudent reaction of the market. Not able to shake up markets and the news that CIT may still need to bankruptcy despite $ 3 billion promised by the holders of bonds, thereby thicken clouds over the financial sector. We will see that the answer to this Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp and Wells Fargo for its reports on the profits.

The economic calendar is empty today, and so will be up until Thursday. The second day of Bernanke speech hardly prepodneset any surprises because everything that could say, said yesterday. Although nothing new, and some of the statements of Chapter Fedrezerva we do not know. Therefore, most likely, the focus is concentrated on the records of the profits that American companies continue to publish and which may cause a surge of activity in the stock market, which have in recent times a significant impact on dinamku rates. And the fact that yesterday's rather corporate reports are not caused renewed interest in risk was due only to caution investors in anticipation of the Bernanke comments. Therefore, it is possible that today we once again see the strengthening of higher rates, even more so now that every recession is seen as a good point to enter the market.

EUR

yesterday the euro-zone economy is not pleased with any of the investors accounts. Yes, even if the data were published, the reaction to them, most likely would have been very moderate and short-term because the market of other catalysts. Published this morningon the French consumer spending remained unheeded, though, and demonstrate a growth exceeding projections (1.4% m /m, against the forecast 0.2%). However, a snowflake, yet no snow. Therefore, isolated positive reports are unlikely to be able to convince investors that the economy begins to stabilize. Just as individual voting officials, who see signs of recovery. In particular, yesterday the Minister of Finance of France, Lagarde said that the economy came to a point. In her view, the stage began when the recession starts to stabilize.

Let's see, will confirm whether this assumption is now recorded on eurozone industrial orders. The growth rate, of course, can be seen as a green escape. But the most likely response from the currency it did not cause.

GBP

Brits lucky yesterday and had a little less than a day сдавал its position that continues to do today. The pair is under pressure from comments Bina, who stubbornly continues to repeat that while the quantitative effect of the mitigation special and did not have signs of economic recovery has not yet been observed. We will see that the answer to this data for GDP for the second quarter, which will be published on Friday (the sudden increase could have supported the currency). Add fuel to the fire, and rumors that Barclays and RBS would need additional funds, estimated billions, if they want to maintain the growth of their investment banks in the event of a change in regulatory rules.

Today, of course, deserves the attention of the Protocol last MPC meeting. It will be recalled that until all the incentives were left unchanged. However, the slightest hint at the quantitative expansion of the program to mitigate the British currency would have on further pressure. Therefore, it is be very careful.

JPY

Jena yesterday was the only currency, able to strengthen against the dollar. And the reasons for this movement is quite difficult to find. Well, well, try to drag-fetched the topic of interest to the risk, initially provoked preponderance of long positions on the dollar and euro against the yen, the yield of which was the reason for the growth of Japanese currency. If you go back to the economic realities, it is everything is still uncertain, as noted in his comments, the Bank of Japan Deputy Country Director Yamaguchi.

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