Market Analysis

After a short pause at the beginning of the week, world indices are beginning to recover. In anticipation of the launch of corporate reporting season, investors' optimism is supported by expectations of improving the profitability of companies in the background of signs of recovery of the U.S. economy. U.S. indexes added about 1%, Asian MSCI - 1,6%, Nikkei - about 2%. Thus, the capital once again rushed in risky assets, with the main demand is in raw materials. Quotations of oil jumped to 2.3% to $ 72.64.

U.S. indexes added in the course of yesterday's auction of about 1%. Apparently, investors are trying to squeeze out the maximum from the pre-week. Their optimism is based primarily on positive expectations of the upcoming corporate reporting, which they hoped to see signs of economic recovery. Against this backdrop, the greatest demand for commodity assets and shares of mining companies. Against the backdrop of the growth of quotations of oil more than $ 2 per barrel (up to $ 71.4/barrel) during the bidding of American energy sector grew by 1.5%. Growth in shares of steel companies was 1%. Additional support sector have news about the restoration of activity in the MA: in particular, the proposal for the purchase of Anglo American for $ 24 billion from the Xtrata. Also, the demand seen in the actions of the banking sector and technology companies, both sectors added about 1%.

It should be noted that the recovery in demand for raw materials did not prevent a very pessimistic report, International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects lower demand for oil at 3.7% in the medium term (up to 2011-2012 years), with a recovery in demand to pre-crisis levels is expected only in 2015. The reason for such conservative estimates, is very weak macroeconomic Background: The Agency believes that the growth of the leading economies of developing countries will not be able to compensate for the fall of the consumption of energy by developed countries.

Asia supported American optimism about the recovery of world economy in the second half of this year. In the paper were the best performing oil (Sinopec: 5,8%), metallurgy (Rio Tinto shares rose by 3.5%). An essential factor for the growth of the shares of Chinese oil companies had the decision of the Chinese government to increase by 11% the price of fuel to ensure that the revenue of the company sector. In addition, the demand seen in the shares of financial companies and consumer sectors. In general, index MSCI Asia rose by 1.6%. Nikkei - 2%, and despite the rise in unemployment to a new 5-year-old record. The reason for investor optimism has become an unexpected increase in household expenditure in May.

It is likely that the Russian market opens today, a growth of 2-3%, despite another batch of negative forecasts for the economy of the Government (expected to decline to 8.5% of GDP). In the absence of any major exceptions of liquidity (in particular auctions treasuries), in the next couple of days of positive sentiment in the market should continue. Fixing possible profit on Thursday - on the publication of statistics on the labor market, but it is unlikely to lead to full-scale correction in advance of U.S. Independence Day.

Today, the market waits for new data to the real estate market: the index will be released in 17-00 SP Case Shiller. Investors are very positive and are waiting for further recovery in prices on the real estate market. In addition, interest publication Chicago PMI (17-45), the index of consumer confidence in the United States (18-00).

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