Market Analysis

dollar exchange rate on the world market has updated a maximum of six months. For 1 euro already give at least $ 1,4. The commentary by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA, to leave interest rates unchanged, but there were words about the early restoration of the national economy, while the economic situation in some countries of southern Europe, experts say, threatens the stability in the euro zone.

American currency continued to win back the world market. During yesterday"s trading the euro sank below the psychologically important mark of $ 1,4 - up to $ 1.3935, up 1% below the previous day"s close. Since the low quote euro did not drop since mid-July 2009. Since the beginning of the year the euro has lost 2.7%, and for two months of almost uninterrupted decline, he fell by 7,5%. The last time such a rate euro depreciated in early 2009, when the expectations a new round of world crisis, investors chose the dollar as the most reliable tool for investment.

against a basket of six leading world currencies (index DXY) dollar reached a mark of 79.066 points - the maximum value from August 2009. The Ukrainian market has traditionally behaved in the opposite way - and devalued the dollar and euro. Currency indicator fell to 8,06-8,08 UAH /$ on Wednesday to 8,01-8,05 UAH /$ yesterday. Its significance in the euro sank to UAH 11,34-11,37 /EUR 11,24-11,28 to UAH /EUR.

main reason for strengthening of the dollar on the world market was the outcome of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System. After two days of meetings of the Committee on Open Market (FOMC), ended late on Wednesday evening, the range of interest rates, as expected, remained unchanged (0-0,25%). But comments FOMC sounded more optimistic than before. "Economic activity continued to grow strongly," - said in a statement, while in December 2009 FOMC had expected only a slow economic recovery. "Another two or three quarters of good growth in the United States can totally change the rhetoric of the Fed," - said partner UFG Wealth Management Oksana Kuchuro.

According to the head of analytical department of the Criminal Code "Arbat Capital Sergei Fundobnogo, investors got a clear signal that the U.S. economy is doing on the amendment, while the future of the eurozone remains uncertain. Nervousness in the market added an urgent debate at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "The euro zone will inevitably fall apart, and the blame for this should primarily be entrusted to Spain" - said U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini. In addition to Spain, investors are warily watching the situation in Portugal and Greece.

At yesterday"s auction yield of ten-year commitments Greece soared to a record 7.25% per annum. Spread in a decade of bond yields between Greece and Germany peaked at 405 basis points.

"It is hardly correct to talk about a probability of sovereign default and the near collapse of the euro, - emphasizes the director ofc1bthe Treasury of the Eurasian Development Bank, Sergei Elagin .- But the further deterioration could lead to serious consequences for Europe and will have serious implications for European currency. According to the chief economist of Deutsche Bank"s Yaroslav Lissovolik, the closest level of support for the euro - $ 1.35, where he will continue to strive.

On the paper "Savings Bank" is an important support level of 85 rubles per share, below which will decrease the signal to an active sales
Perhaps, over time the relationship between the dollar and oil will begin to weaken
It is possible that today many of Russia"s paper on the results of the auctions will be able to close in positive territory
From the most active market participants in Russia retains the behavior of oil prices and increased volatility of exchange rates
In the near future is expected to continue strengthening dollar and lower oil and the continuation of Russia"s market correction

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