Market Analysis

In 2009, world steel production declined by 8%, in Ukraine - 20,2%. However, our competitors - China and India - have managed to build up production. At the same time, Western countries have suffered from self-protection - a crisis hit their steel companies hurt vsego.Ukraina retained eighth place in the ranking of world steel producers, which is published annually by The World Steel Association (worldsteel).

According to the Association, the world steel production in 2009 amounted to 1,219.7 million tons (-8.1% from the 2008), including Ukrainian companies smelted 29,8 million tons of steel that 20,2% lower than in 2008 (37.3 million tons). If we compare the results of 2009 from the peak in 2007, the global reduction of metal production was 9.4%, and Ukrainian - 30,4%. It is worth noting that the results of Ukrainian enterprises were much better than forecasts, which are quoted at the beginning of 2009 because in some winter months (late 2008 - early 2009) the reduction in steel production in the country reached 60%.

was expected for the year Ukraine will reduce the maximum output. However, according to worldsteel, in the top 10 steel producers - with the worst performance: U.S. (-36.4%), Germany (-28.7), Japan (-26.3) and Brazil (-21.4%) . And for the year the United States, with a score of 58,1 million tons, lost third place ranking in Russia (59.9 million tons). Increased production occurred only in two countries:China (13,5%) and India (2.7%).

IC Phoenix Capital analyst Alexander Makarov says: "Metallurgy in the developed countries were caught in the national markets. The European, Japanese and American steelworkers could trigger even worse if not for quotas and tariffs that protect their markets."

"At the beginning of the crisis, consumers, panicked, in the first sever relations with foreign suppliers. But as to stabilize the situation and reduce the demand of some States to resume purchases of metal with the lowest cost. Ukrainian producers with vertical integration are the first three world leaders in the cost of slabs and billets commodity "- the analyst IR BG Capital Eugene Dubogryz.

in 2009 from 49,6% to 58,3% increase in the share of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), indicating a redistribution of iron and steel production from developed to developing countries. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers poured 47% of world steel. Ukraine slightly reduced its share in world steel production - from 2,8% to 2,4%.

According to information before "i" information among Ukrainian companies worst performance in relative terms, showed the small plants - Donetskstal-MZ, Donetsk EMZ, Interpipe - NYZHNYODNIPROVSKY TPZ "and" DSS ", in which the decline in production was from 40% to 52%. Distinguish Makeevskij MZ, where last year it was completely phased out the production of steel and cast iron. In absolute terms, the maximum reduction in steel production recorded at OAO MMK im. Ilyich and ArcelorMittal - Krivoy Rog - 1,35 and 1,19 million tons, respectively. However, about 0,6 million tons of steel in 2009 was made by new businesses from the Donetsk region - OAO Azovelectrostal "(Mariupol) and OOO Elektrostal (Kurakhovo).

"We expect growth in steel production in Ukraine on 12,5% to 33,5 million tons in 2010 and 5.4% average annual growth in steel production in the next nine years. But the steel companies from developed countries are unlikely to substantially improve their performance because of the higher cost of production of 1 ton of steel. In these regions (EU, U.S., etc.), emphasis will be placed on the development of rolling production ", - believes Eugene Dubogryz.

supports him, Alexander Makarov: "The share of the BRICs in the global steel production will continue to grow. The main issue is expected to increase just as India and Brazil. will increase the power and Russia with China. At the same time in developed countries, and steel is gradually dying. When something the industry was strategic for each country, but over the past 15 years it has become global and has lost its privileged status ".

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