Market Analysis

current account deficit of balance of payments in Ukraine up to 2009 (preliminary) of $ 1.9 billion UAH. was not much worse than predicted. This was due to the deterioration of GDP against a background of less severe decline in real incomes. So the head of group of advisers of head NBU Valery Litvitsky commented on the data released by the National Bank of Ukraine on Jan. 28, 2010

According to him, the worsening current account surplus mainly influenced by the trade deficit, which began to grow in the III and IV quarters, although in the first half showed negative dynamics. This, according to V. Litvitsky occurred because "the pace of decline of GDP in 2009 were significantly higher than the fall in real incomes."

"At that time, as the decline in GDP for the year amounted to 13-14%, and we observed the positive dynamics of GDP each quarter, real incomes fell in the vicinity of 9-10%. Since the propensity to save in Ukraine remained low, and the propensity to consume is stable, this has led to renewed demand for imports, including imports of consumption ", - said the head of group of advisers of heade0eNBU. Also, he noted, the state of the current account balance of payments has fallen short of forecasts because of the uneven recovery of Ukrainian exports.

At the same time, V. Litvitsky believes that the state of the financial account balance of payments up to 2009 was better than predicted at the beginning of last year. "In the financial account, we underestimated the positive aspects. Of course, we end the year with a deficit, but less than 12 billion UAH. (11.8 billion UAH. - Ed).. This is better than forecasts. It turns out that banks and companies have successfully completed the process restructuring. Moreover, in December 2009, the first time since September 2008, we even had a small surplus in the financial account. That is, we have received more capital inflows than outflows, "- said the expert.

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