Market Analysis

In 2009, the volume of retail trade enterprises of trade and restaurant industry amounted to 229.9 billion UAH, that on 20,6% less than in 2008. The largest decline in retail trade occurred in Donetsk (-26.6%) and Dnipropetrovsk (-25.1%) regions, the smallest - in Odessa (-11.8%) and Lviv (-13.9%). In Kiev - by 22,2%.

Monthly dynamics of retail trade shows that the sharp drop in turnover occurred in the first half of 2009, while in the second half of the rate of fall turnover stabilized. In the II half of the continuation of decline was not observed, trade volumes were approximately 20% lower than a year earlier. Thus, the volume of retail trade in Ukraine almost returned to the level of 2007 (in 2008, the volume of trade increased by 17,9%). At the same time consumer price inflation last year was 12,3%, including foodstuffs - 10,9%.

A fixed amount of decline in general coincides with the estimates themselves retailers, said the director of research company RetailStudio Michael Gryshchenko. According to the expert, last year"s sales slump - a regular market correction after several years of sharp increase in incomes, not backed by real growth of production. Recall, the annual growth of nominal wages up to November 2009 amounted to only 7,3% (in November 2008 - 22,7%).

Gryshchenko said that this year the stabilization of the volume of retail trade is likely to continue. "For the growth of retail sales to increase revenue as well as the resumption of lending. Without all this up in 2010 is expected sales volume at the level of last year - he said .- The probability of a change of government and, consequently, economic and social strategy increasingly become evident only in 2011. Overall, analysts estimate IR Astrum Investment Management Alexei Blinov, in the current year growth in nominal wages will accelerate and double the amount to 14,5%.

reasonable estimates of experts shared by market participants. "We focus on the forecast sales growth of 12%," - says CEO Network Eco-Market "Victor Povnitsa. "While it is difficult to predict sales growth", - said General Director of "Billa-Ukraine"s Ruslan Lavrinenko. Worse still waiting in the segment sales of manufactured goods. The financial crisis is no reason to expect sales growth. Concerning the possible recession, all may have to wait until the election, "- says CEO Network Comfy (store chain of home appliances and electronics) Gennady Verbilenko.

Yuri Panchenko

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