Market Analysis

the end of 2009 Ukraine should significantly reduce the dependence on the U.S. dollar and the possible move to settlements in national currencies. This opinion was expressed by a corresponding member of NAS of Ukraine, former Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Valery Muntiyan.

Due to the fact that the United States continues to conduct emissions and prohibitively increase their debt, the dollar against a basket of major world currencies could weaken in the next three to four months. This will occur until such time as the dollar reaches a critical value - 1.68 against the euro. After passing through this critical level may rise before the euro, since these currencies are linked to each other, - emphasizes V. Muntiyan. - The cost of the dollar will drop to as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates . According to scientists, is another way to strengthen the U.S. dollar - to eliminate the speculative pumping derivatives, as they are cut off from the real economy.

V. Muntiyan believes that the global basket will also reduce the amount of the dollar as a reserve currency. Many countries will increase the number of commodity-monetary payments in national and regional currencies, primarily in Euros, Chinese Yuan, as well as the national currencies of the countries of Latin America and the Middle East.

The transition to the regional reserve currencies actively begin after the first quarter of 2010, moreover, that the dollar will remain the world's main settlement currency - he said.

As he suggests, Ukraine needs to protect the national economy, as foreign exchange reserves we have basically been formed in U.S. dollars. First of all, you need to increase payments in national currency to replace dollar in foreign reserves in monetary gold, to diversify the currency basket, the modernization of the real sector of economy, - he said.

former deputy minister of economy said that should be cautious about such financial instruments as credit default swaps and exchanges, as well as to the consistent policy on the exchange rate, because of manipulation, political speculation in the dollar pose a threat to economic security.

In the international system of currency, the real exchange rate is now about 4 Hrn. dollar. This relationship between the dollar /local currency means that, despite the difficult financial situation, Ukraine continues to subsidize other countries, - says V. Muntiyan.

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