Market Analysis

23.06.09 20:32 ;
  Outside the background before the opening of Russia's bid on Tuesday formed a neutral. On Monday the U.S. stock market dominated by negative sentiment against the backdrop of a wave of pessimism about the prospects for global economic recovery. At the end of the trading Dow-Jones index fell by 2,35%, SP - on 3,06%, Nasdaq - on 3,35%.

At the Asian stock sites today in the morning is also dominated by a negative trend. Japanese Nikkei index to the opening of the Russian sites losing 3%. China's Shanghai Composite Index has been in «red» at 0.9%.

Most of «blue chips» in the first minute of the session declined by about 2-3%. By 12.40 Moscow time the MICEX index fell by 2.1% to 918.24 points. RTS Index fell almost 5% to 913.63 points. Trading volume on MICEX amounted to $ 2, 363.70 million added negative outlook on the World Bank for the world economy over the next couple of years.

Leaders decline in the early hours of the trading were shares «AvtoVAZ», and «pharmacy chains 36,6», lost 12% and 12.5% respectively. Declining oil and gas companies as paper, with a noticeable increase in small stock «Surgutneftegaz» (1%) on reports that in 2008 the company through exploration work has provided the growth in oil reserves 105 million tons.

Papers «Sberbank» and VTB losing in the first half of the session 4.4% and 2.7% respectively. Substantial sales are in the telecommunications sector, for example, «Rostelecom» and «Dalsvyaz» lost 8% and 5.7% respectively.

By the middle of the trading market for the Russian part of the morning played down by a recovery trend of American futures and entry into the positive area of European sites. Almost all the «blue chips» the morning were able to close the price gaps, podtyanuvshis to yesterday's levels. However, trading in the market were to weaken the ruble and low price levels for oil, which prevented sustained growth.

strength differed volatility trading in securities of Sberbank. Of the leaders of reducing the shares in the second half of the day become the leaders of growth. As a result of the closure session of the growth of securities amounted to 3.5%. Also in «green belt traded securities Uralkali and Severstal.

Most experts believe that bidding on the Russian market in the coming days will be the same volatility. «Until the Russian stock market is above the 200-day moving average, and oil - above $ 50 a barrel, we will consider the current decline in stock market capitalization as a correction to an increase, rather than a shift of long-term ascending trendline formed in first half of the year », - noted analyst CC Raiffeisen Capital Sergei Tyukanko.

«It is possible that before the end of the week the Russian market will try to win back part of the fall and try to return to the level of 1000 points on the MICEX index, but are likely to overcome this level at the first attempt to hardly work. Thus, after achieving the above levels, we can begin the next wave for the purpose of correctional 780-800 points on the MICEX index », - noted portfolio manager IC Finam Alexey Belkin.

MICEX index closed today at 917.3 points (-2.2%), RTS index - on the level of 932.74 points (-2.94%).

Trades in Europe ended differently: FTSE index fell by 0.1%, CAC 40 index lost 0.21%, DAX index rose by 0.29%. U.S. stock opened near the site of yesterday's closing levels. At 20:30 Moscow time the Dow Jones in the red at 0.21%, the index SP - in the black at 0,013%, the index of Nasdaq - in the red at 0,095%.

The August futures for oil brand Brent traded at a price of $ 67.63, oil brand Light - $ 68.

In the evening session on FORTS the September futures on the RTS index decreases on 0,08% at 90835 points. Futures for shares of Gazprom and Lukoil lost 0.75% and 0.53% respectively, the futures on the shares of Sberbank in the black at 1.81%.


  

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Russian indexes on Wednesday to compensate the loss through technical correction
Almost all the «blue chips» traded in «green belt», but the statistics on the United States can deploy down quotes
The forecasts of analysts: In the first half of session, shares of the banking sector will again be in demand
The Russian stock market decline continues, in the second half of the day can rebound up
The forecasts of analysts: Basic reason for the growth of the Russian market is not there, but now can be a technical rebound up
Upon reaching the MICEX and RTS indices mark the 1000 points on the Russian market could increase sales
The Russian stock market is not ready for a correction, it is unlikely that domestic indexes again in the near future will move toward 900
Data on oil reserves in the United States not inspired on Wednesday quotes black gold on a significant movement
Morning increase in index futures on the S P500 and the rise of Asian sites may outweigh the decline in oil quotes

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