Market Analysis

Ukrainian economy begins to recover due to a gradual increase in demand for Ukrainian products in export markets, as well as exports still constitute a significant portion of the economy. This is stated in the review prepared by the company Foyil Securities.

"This year figures to be extremely positive, given the excessive decline of the economy last year. Thus, we estimate that Ukraine"s GDP in 2009 fell to 13.3%, while industrial production fell by 22%. We expect that the positive effects of increased demand and prices for products, metallurgical, chemical, agricultural and heavy machinery can be seen early in the second half of this year, "- commented Agshin Mirzazade, director of analytical department of Foyil Securities.

Foyil Securities Analysts expect that in the second half of 2010, most banks will resume lending opiratsii, stimulating consumer demand, which is more than 67% of GDP of Ukraine. It is expected that in 2010 GDP increased by 2,7%, while industrial production by 6,7%. The world economy continues to recover, and during 2011, which should lead to higher world prices for metal and 7% in 2011 and increased liquidity in international capital markets, this development should lead to an increase in the Ukrainian economy on 3,6% in 2011.

In 2009, the government managed to keep inflation below 13% according to the obligations to the IMF. The main factor for inflation was the increase in food prices - this trend will continue in 2010. Tariffs on utility services will also affect the growth of consumer price index (CPI), as the government will have to raise them to market levels. Analysts expect that in 2010 the CPI vyrostet by 9,7%.

"The current account is positive, about 0,6% of GDP, while the financial account deficit decreased by 67%. As a result of payments Dynamics of Ukraine would improve by 84%", - emphasizes Agshin Mirzazade.

analysts predict, Ukrainian hryvnia will be under pressure during the first half, and the average rate was 8.10 hryvnia /dollar in 2010.

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