Market Analysis

Macroeconomic background today was negative, which led to the testing of the MICEX index marks 975 points. Futures on the indexes in the United States during the session, sliding down the oil futures in anticipation of the publication of the U.S. labor market also showed negative trends. Published at 16:30 Moscow time data on the labor market have proved differently. The unemployment rate was better than forecasts, while the number of jobs in the United States fell sharply in June. Negative figures have been the main focus and provoked a massive sale on world markets. Futures on the SP 500 index Breaks down psychologically important level of 900 points. Statistics promproizvodstvu published after the opening of the American sites, it was better than forecasts, but it has not returned to the market of buyers.

In my opinion, after the closure of local sites of mood in the U.S. market can be enhanced, which will be linked with otygryvaniem of promproizvodstvu. Improved sentiment at the opening of the Russian market could also be linked to the rebound value of black gold after today's decline, and after today's correction Drawdown.

Trades in the United States there would be no tomorrow. The main determining factor for the domestic market will continue to be futures on U.S. indices, and futures on oil. Total trades in the United States will be played on the Russian market at the beginning of the session, after which bids will probably be quite boring. Volumes are likely to be negligible, since the bulk of the market will take for the weekend. But tomorrow the market may go big players who are able to manipulate the market in case of low volume.

now look worse than the market shares of oil and gas structures, which was associated with lower prices for black gold. Futures oil brand Brent by the end of the session consolidated the vicinity of $ 66.5 per barrel. Shares of Gazprom, after a significant reduction in traded near the 200-day moving average which is close to EUR 156.3 mark. The papers of the company during the session, approaching the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel that passes close to the level of 155 rubles. The immediate goal for the company's shares will mark 160 rub. This level can be overcome tomorrow in the early trades in the event of a positive external background. Shares Lukoil in sales remained down short-term trend and fell below the psychologically important level of 1400 rubles. The papers have considerable potential for the fall - up to 1300 rubles. In the case of a positive external background immediate goal will be the level of 1400 rubles.

Shares of Sberbank and VTB consolidated near the level of support which they were made by the upper limit of the downstream channel and 200-day moving average, respectively. Tomorrow, more likely to buy after today's decline. Paper Sberbank could test the upper limit of the downstream channel marks around 38.5 rubles. When the level of Perforation of the shares may go toward 40 rub. Paper VTB in the case of a positive external background test level 3,7 cop.

Against the backdrop of the news from China to better market looked metallurgists, which may lead to the emergence of the new price benchmarks and, more high. In my opinion, the position on the Securities Industry Metallurgy better record, because in case of positive sentiment tomorrow will be more interesting ideas in neftyanke, and banks. Either way, this news medium has increased the attractiveness of the securities industry.

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Russian bids were opened gepom down during the day and the negative trend has been prevailing. At the same time reducing the rate of stock indexes were low. High oil prices do not seem to inspire buyers, moreover, that the quotes in the black gold have moved away from their local maxima. Among the papers of oil and gas sector experienced the greatest losses on shares of Gazprom, Tatneft, Transneft, Lukoil. Also Bestsellers paper noted the banking sector, where most cheaper shares Sberbank - more than 4%. There were also no growing so - is, first of all, the action Polymetal, and Severstal.

Most of the trading session was marked by expectations of macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. labor market. Market reaction has been negative, because the data were disappointing. The number of jobs declined more than expected. This alarming signal. The situation in the American economy is still very difficult. Nevertheless, even if investors react to this fact the sales, but the pace moderate. In the event that the world markets will be positive, it is possible to increase and at the Russian trading floors.

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Futures on the JSC VTB (VBU9): futures on OJSC VTB in the early hours of the trading was in a positive basis of 55 - 60 points, but then at 13-30 Moscow time contango decreased by 15 - 20 points. Futures on the new 1.6% (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. VTB. Bazis within days.

The number of open positions as compared to the morning opening increased by 5 000, and at 13-30 Moscow time the value of this indicator was 64 000 (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. VTB. Open positions within days.

In the medium term, the market remains in the descending trend. Volatility September putov outside money - higher than the September call out of money. Thus, at the current market, we again see a volatility smirk with distortions in the putov (Fig. 3), which indicates that the downward movement should be resumed.

Fig 3. VTB. Exchange IV within days.

If you talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number of remains VB3500AU9 (put max, Fig. 4) and VB4000AI9 (call max, Fig. 4) страйках, the absolute values for these страйках do not focus on these levels as at full form.

Figure 4. Levels optional support /resistance.

The most likely scenario: the level of Perforation 3 500, followed by a view 2 250.

Least likely scenario: the resumption of growth to a level of 4 000.

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Lukoil

Norilsk Nickel

Rostelekom

Gazprom

Mosenergo

Surgutneftegaz

Savings Bank

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Trading on the Russian market is now relatively quiet nature - summer indifference. But some remnants still active players.

We are seeing a record profit in shares RusGidro. At the market yesterday was another piece of good news, for example, that the company is beginning the launch of the ADR program in August in London.

frontal growth securities is not observed. Prior to the growth of the market is still far. The most liquid securities, such as Gazprom and LUKoil, are sonnom condition. But there are some green centers. Growing, for example, shares Raspadskaya, NLMK and MMK.

today have an important statistical data on the U.S. labor market. These data usually come on Fridays, but as of Friday in the United States will not be bidding in connection with the celebration of Independence Day, they are published today.

We can not say that the market trend is down, because if it was, it fell to the entire market. And today there are all the same chips that are in the pros. The presence of positive stories in the market allows investors to earn in the long.

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June we have closed in the red corridor (almost -16%). We saw a correction after four months of growth. If we look in more detail at the beginning of the month, ie June 2, we saw a historical maximum of the year, and immediately thereafter we saw a sharp drop-down, which slowed down by the end of the month. Among the hardest hit shares fell banking sector, namely, Sberbank (-15%). But with a maximum value of 56.90 EUR., A correction of almost 40%.

Leaders of growth were observed, but minimal decline was observed in the energy sector, for example, RusGidro (-7%).

Regarding the oil, then one month it has risen very good (10%). This is due to many factors. First, go on oil in America, who spoke on the decrease. Secondly, the markets there is high liquidity and the money went to the markets of commodities. This is a very large speculative component. Plus, an explosion in the Nigerian oil militants. This all had an impact on the cost of oil futures. All the latest projections of the major investment houses say that oil prices will soon rise even higher.

But, judging by the fact that oil is in the green corridor (10%), while the Russian market adjusted, it can be concluded that expensive oil affect us negatively.

I think that the rebound, which could be observed in the market until June, as from 31 December to 2 June, when the MICEX index rose by 95%, was so intense that the current correction looks quite normal. I even think that it may continue for some time.

Also, the main news of June are the last in Ekaterinburg the meeting of the SCO and BRIC, which is very much talked about creating a new reserve currency, which could become an alternative to the U.S. dollar, at least within those organizations.

I think that those investors who have not yet recorded a profit, it is worth it to fix, and those who have already done this, I recommend to stay away from the market because I believe that the fall in the market may continue. But it seems to me that those investors who did want to stay in the market, it is better to focus on short-term transactions.

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On Wednesday, rate EUR /USD tested the resistance of 1.4180 /00, but with the opening of today's European session, the quotations of the currency pair returned to the point of their average values over the last week. By 9:00 Moscow time on Thursday the course of the currency pair at 1.4120.

pre-recession market liquidity in anticipation of the Independence Day in the United States traditionally has increased short-term volatility in exchange rates. In these circumstances, the information that China has taken the initiative to discuss the new world reserve currency during the forthcoming summit of G8, has had quite a noticeable downward pressure on foreign exchange quotes the American currency.

It is unlikely that China, with its considerable dollar reserves to pushing the processes associated with the weakening of USD in global finance. However, the gradual increase in the elasticity of the global monetary and payment system, China is one of the world's biggest exporters, obviously interested. It is important to note that the June meeting of Group of Eight was held under the sign of the financial support of the American segment. However, the reduction of tensions in international markets, subsequent thereto, allows the world's financial leaders to once again move its attention to the problems of medium-to long-term projects. With respect to macroeconomic data released on Wednesday, they are generally conducive to the growth of quotation EUR /USD, although is unlikely to influence the dynamics of FX can be significant.

June business climate indicator in industry in the EMC calculated Markit Economics, according to yesterday's data, rose to 42.6 points. The average prediction and the value of this indicator in the last month amounted to, respectively, 42.4 and 40.7 pt.

Retail sales in Germany in May, TG increased by 0,4% (m /m) compared to 0.5% (m /m) in the previous month and -0.1% (m /m), on average, expected in the case of specialists.

On the other hand, the rate of business optimism in the manufacturing sector of America, according to the ISM, in June of TG, though, and continued to increase, amounting to 44.8 pt. to 42.8 points in May 2009, yet was below the average market forecast, equal to 46.4 pt.

showed similar trends and an indicator of planned sales in the American housing market. Its value in May, TG increased by 0,1% (m /m), which was less than expected in the average value of specialists 0,7% (m /m). However, formed in April, TG growing trend in this indicator, apparently survived. This increase in this indicator during the previous month was revised from an increase to 7.1% (m /m) compared to 6.7% (m /m) previously.

Exchange EUR /USD remains a short-term growth potential. However, the risks change bull trend of the currency pair on the opposite, in terms of prospects for the coming weeks, appears to be relatively high.

Financial flows from Japan, other Asian countries - which now seems to begin to set the tone in the market - can, in large part, to pass the EU countries. Europe less than ready for the crisis than, for example, the United States and China. Effect in this case, the limited opportunities in the European monetary and fiscal macroeconomic stimulation, as well as behind the regional banking system in matters related to the clearing the balance of credit institutions.

Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 10:00 Moscow time was 31.13 and 36.87 rubles. against, respectively, 31.19 and 36.87 rubles. morning bidding. The recent gradual appreciation of the ruble to bivalyutnoy basket Bank of Russia and the USD in the coming months, possibly as a result of continued, even in the face of improvement in the financial markets of Russia over the period mid-June, TG Operators of FX in this perspective, it seems, will closely monitor forecasts of the Russian budget statistics and the dynamics of these debt indicators of corporate sector of the economy of Russia.

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